Union Support and Economic Outlook in the 2024 Presidential Race with Sarah Longwell, Simon Rosenberg, and Larry Mantle
Summary of This Conversation Prepared by Jews United for Democracy & Justice
In a recent episode of America at a Crossroads, political commentators Sarah Longwell from The Bulwark and Simon Rosenberg from The Hopium Chronicles joined Larry Mantle to discuss the shifting dynamics of the 2024 presidential race. As the general election approaches, the conversation delved into key issues such as the role of labor unions, economic concerns, and how these factors are shaping the campaigns of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Union Support and Labor Dynamics
Teamsters’ Decision to Withhold Endorsement
The discussion began with an analysis of the Teamsters’ decision to withhold their presidential endorsement for the first time in decades. While this move could appear detrimental to Harris’ campaign, Simon Rosenberg emphasized that the Biden-Harris administration still enjoys historic levels of union support, particularly at the local level.
“Even without the national Teamsters’ endorsement, the vice president has more enthusiastic labor support than any Democratic campaign in generations,” Rosenberg explained, noting that many local Teamster unions in battleground states have endorsed the campaign.
The Impact of Local Labor Support
This local support, Rosenberg argued, reflects the broader enthusiasm of the labor movement, spurred by the administration’s pro-union policies. According to him, Harris’ campaign has seen a level of labor engagement unprecedented in modern American political history, positioning her well to leverage this support in key states.
Economic Outlook and Voter Perceptions
Voter Experience vs. Economic Indicators
The economy, always a central issue in elections, remains a contentious topic in this race. Despite positive economic indicators such as falling inflation and gas prices, Sarah Longwell presented a more cautious view, warning that many voters’ lived experiences with high costs continue to fuel discontent.
“Voters know how much eggs cost, and they know it’s higher than it was before,” Longwell remarked, emphasizing the disconnect between macroeconomic data and the daily realities of voters. While Rosenberg was optimistic, pointing to Harris’ improving poll numbers on economic management, Longwell highlighted that dissatisfaction with inflation still dominates discussions in her focus groups.
Impact on Swing Voters
This economic frustration, particularly among swing voters and working-class Americans, remains a significant hurdle for the Harris campaign. Longwell suggested that the Teamsters’ decision not to endorse Harris reflects deeper concerns within traditionally Democratic-leaning groups. She observed that despite the positive economic outlook, Harris still faces challenges convincing some voters that the administration’s policies are truly benefiting them.
Harris’ Economic Strategy and Public Perception
Entrepreneurship and Opportunity as Key Themes
Both Rosenberg and Longwell agreed that Harris has made strides in positioning her economic message around opportunity and entrepreneurship. Rosenberg cited the administration’s success in launching more new businesses than any other presidency, alongside initiatives like the $25,000 tax break for entrepreneurs. He described this as a testament to Harris’ commitment to building a strong economic future.
“We’ve had more businesses start under Biden-Harris than any other administration,” Rosenberg asserted, linking these efforts to a broader narrative of economic recovery and growth.
Voter Perception of Harris vs. Trump on the Economy
However, Longwell remained skeptical about Harris’ ability to fully connect with voters on economic specifics, especially in light of Trump’s business credentials. “People still think of Trump as a businessman who understands the economy,” she observed, acknowledging that Trump’s simplistic economic messaging, focused on deregulation and tax cuts, continues to resonate with a significant portion of the electorate.
Despite this, Harris’ emphasis on rebuilding infrastructure and addressing housing shortages—key issues in battleground states—suggests that her campaign is focusing on tangible solutions to economic challenges. Longwell noted that Harris’ middle-class background and her focus on housing development and entrepreneurship are likely to appeal to voters but added that Harris may need to become more fluent in articulating economic specifics to maintain momentum.
Conclusion
As the 2024 election draws closer, the role of unions, voter perceptions of the economy, and Harris’ ability to appeal to working-class voters will be critical in determining the outcome. The decision of the Teamsters not to endorse her campaign, coupled with lingering concerns about inflation, underscores the importance of how both candidates address these key issues in the final stretch.
Stay tuned for the next post, where we’ll explore the political strategy of both campaigns and the influence of voter turnout and the gender divide in the race for the White House.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.