U.S. Middle East Policy, Iran’s Role, and Regional Stability With Dana Stroul and Michael Singh with Warren Olney
Summary of This Conversation Prepared by Jews United for Democracy & Justice
In a recent America at a Crossroads episode, experts Dana Stroul and Michael Singh explored the broader implications of the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. As the region braces for potential wider conflict, the discussion focused on Iran’s influence, the United States’ military posture, and the delicate balance of power in the Middle East. With the U.S. playing a critical role, Stroul and Singh analyzed the diplomatic and military strategies at play and how regional stability might be achieved in the midst of growing tensions.
Iran’s Influence and Regional Dynamics
Iran’s Role in Backing Hezbollah and Other Militant Groups
Stroul and Singh highlighted Iran’s pivotal role in supporting and enabling Hezbollah, as well as other militant groups like Hamas, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria. Stroul explained that Iran thrives in environments of chaos and instability, using these ungoverned or under-governed spaces to further its influence across the region.
“[Iran thrives in ungoverned spaces, backing Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other groups to destabilize the region,]” Stroul remarked, explaining how Tehran’s strategy is designed to create leverage against Israel and its regional allies.
The Risk of Iran Intervening in the Conflict
As Hezbollah’s situation in Lebanon grows more precarious under sustained Israeli military pressure, both analysts warned that Iran might decide to intervene more directly to protect its most important proxy. Stroul noted that Iran views Hezbollah as its “insurance policy” in the region, and its collapse could force Tehran to take a more active role in the conflict.
“[If Hezbollah’s collapse becomes a real risk, Iran may feel compelled to intervene to save it,]” Stroul cautioned, adding that such an intervention would significantly escalate the conflict and force the U.S. and other international actors to reassess their strategies.
U.S. Military Presence and Readiness
The U.S. Show of Force in the Region
Michael Singh pointed out that the U.S. military has already increased its presence in the Middle East in response to the rising tensions. With around 40,000 U.S. troops stationed across the region, as well as aircraft carriers and fighter jets deployed, the U.S. military presence serves as both a deterrent to Iran and a reassurance to American allies.
“[The mere presence of U.S. forces could deter Iran and Hezbollah from escalating further, but we must be prepared for the possibility of involvement,]” Singh said, highlighting that while the U.S. hopes to avoid direct engagement, its forces are positioned to respond if necessary.
Potential for U.S. Involvement in the Conflict
Both analysts agreed that while the U.S. has worked to avoid getting directly involved in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, there is a real possibility that U.S. forces could be drawn in if the situation escalates further. Stroul pointed out that the U.S. has already been targeted by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria following its support for Israel.
“[The U.S. already has skin in the game,]” Stroul noted, referring to attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria by Iranian proxies. She emphasized that the U.S. may be forced to respond militarily if Iran chooses to escalate, even if that involvement does not necessarily include putting more American boots on the ground.
The Role of Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accords
Saudi Arabia’s Hesitation Amid the Conflict
Stroul also discussed the impact of the conflict on diplomatic efforts in the region, particularly the potential normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Prior to the Hamas attacks on October 7th, there had been significant progress in negotiations, with the U.S. facilitating talks that could have led to a historic agreement between the two countries.
However, with the conflict now dominating the agenda, Stroul pointed out that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to move forward with normalization if there is no movement on the Palestinian issue. “[Saudi Arabia won’t move toward normalizing with Israel while the situation in Gaza remains unresolved,]” Stroul explained, indicating that the conflict has stalled one of the most promising diplomatic breakthroughs in recent years.
The Importance of the Abraham Accords for Regional Stability
The Abraham Accords, which facilitated the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab nations, remain a cornerstone of U.S. strategy for long-term stability in the Middle East. Singh emphasized the strategic value of these agreements, noting that the expansion of the Abraham Accords could create a more unified front among Israel and its Arab neighbors, improving regional security and stability.
“Saudi-Israel normalization could have been a significant breakthrough, but the conflict has placed that on hold,” Singh said, stressing that achieving peace in Gaza and securing the future of the Palestinian territories will be critical to restarting these talks.
U.S. Political Landscape and Impact on Policy
Bipartisan Agreement on Support for Israel
As the conversation turned to U.S. domestic politics, Singh highlighted that regardless of who wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election, there is bipartisan consensus on supporting Israel and deterring Iran. He noted that while there may be differences in rhetoric, both major political parties agree on the fundamental importance of Israel’s security and preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
“[Whether it’s a Trump or Harris administration, the core objectives of U.S. Middle East policy—supporting Israel and countering Iran—will remain the same,]” Singh explained.
Concerns About Growing Isolationism
Both Stroul and Singh expressed concerns about growing isolationist tendencies in American foreign policy. Singh warned that reducing U.S. involvement in the Middle East would harm Israel’s security and embolden adversaries like Iran.
“[American leadership in the Middle East is irreplaceable for Israel’s security,]” Singh stated, emphasizing that while there may be political pressure to reduce U.S. engagement in the region, pulling back could have long-term negative consequences for both U.S. interests and regional stability.
Conclusion
As the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah intensifies, the United States finds itself at a critical juncture. With Iran’s influence in the region growing and Saudi-Israeli normalization efforts stalled, U.S. foreign policy will play a key role in shaping the outcome. The balance of military and diplomatic engagement, along with the potential for deeper U.S. involvement, will determine whether the region moves toward de-escalation or further chaos.
With the Abraham Accords on hold and Iran’s ambitions unchecked, the future of the Middle East remains uncertain. However, U.S. leadership and strategic decision-making in the coming months will be critical in maintaining regional stability and preventing a broader conflict.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.