The North, the West Bank, and the Path Toward Peace with Gidi Grinstein and Rabbi Ed Feinstein
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Gidi Grinstein, a former diplomat and key participant in the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, explored the multifaceted challenges Israel faces in dealing with the northern border, the West Bank, and the broader prospects for peace. Grinstein’s insights reflect a deeper understanding of the strategic and political obstacles standing in the way of a long-term solution to the region’s conflicts.
The Threat from the North: Hezbollah and the Lack of Vision
One of the most pressing concerns for Israel is the threat from Hezbollah in the north. Although Hezbollah has not yet launched a full-scale attack, their ability to displace northern Israeli communities with minimal effort is deeply concerning. Grinstein criticized the lack of a clear strategy from the Israeli government, emphasizing that military operations in Lebanon need to be guided by a long-term political goal.
“[There is no vision for winning the war in the north,]” Grinstein warned. He described a potential scenario where Israeli forces push into Lebanon, only to face a continuous cycle of small-scale attacks and rocket fire from Hezbollah. Without a clearly defined objective, such as securing a final border agreement with Lebanon, Israel risks becoming mired in another prolonged conflict.
Grinstein suggested that Israel’s focus should be on consolidating its borders with Lebanon and achieving a permanent, internationally recognized border that could prevent future hostilities. However, without a diplomatic plan to accompany military actions, Israel could find itself stuck in an unwinnable situation.
The Conflict in the West Bank: What Comes Next?
While Israel contends with the threat from the north, the situation in the West Bank continues to deteriorate. Grinstein pointed out that Israeli leaders like Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have been clear about their vision for the region, which involves extending Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank without offering equal rights to Palestinians.
“Ben Gvir and Smotrich have their vision clear… to extend sovereignty over the West Bank without equal rights,” Grinstein explained. This agenda, which prioritizes control over the land without addressing the rights of the Palestinian population, poses a significant challenge to peace and stability.
Grinstein emphasized that Israel’s leadership is at a crossroads. If Prime Minister Netanyahu subscribes to the far-right agenda of dismantling the Palestinian Authority and fully annexing the West Bank, Israel will be forced to assume direct control over millions of Palestinians. This, Grinstein argued, is not a sustainable or desirable outcome for the long-term future of Israel.
Reconciling the Palestinian Authority’s Role
The contradictions in Israel’s policy toward the Palestinian Authority (PA) present another critical challenge. On the one hand, the PA remains the only viable governing body for the Palestinian population in the West Bank. On the other hand, Israeli policies are actively undermining the PA, creating instability and weakening its ability to govern.
Grinstein pointed out this inconsistency: “If the Prime Minister believes that Israel should separate politically from the Palestinians, then the Palestinian Authority is absolutely vital for Israel’s long-term vision.” Without the PA, Israel would have no partner in maintaining order and governance in the West Bank, forcing it to take on that role directly—a situation that Israeli leaders have long sought to avoid.
Grinstein stressed that Israel needs to make a clear choice: either support the PA as a partner for peace and stability, or face the consequences of its collapse. Without coherent policies, the situation in the West Bank will continue to spiral out of control, increasing tensions and violence in the region.
The Path Toward a Two-State Solution
Despite the dire situation, Grinstein still sees the possibility of a two-state solution as a necessary path forward. He believes that recognizing the Palestinian Authority as a state could serve the long-term interests of both Israel and the Palestinians, particularly if it is done under the right conditions.
“[If you believe in political separation between Israelis and Palestinians, recognizing the Palestinian Authority as a state serves long-term interests,]” Grinstein argued. He explained that U.S. recognition of a Palestinian state could offer an opportunity to resolve longstanding issues, such as the right of return for refugees and the final borders of the state.
Grinstein’s argument centers on the idea that gradual progress toward a two-state solution, even if imperfect, is preferable to the alternatives of perpetual occupation or annexation. He stressed that Israel’s leaders need to make strategic choices that reflect the long-term goals of peace and stability, rather than short-term political calculations.
A Gradual Approach to Peace: The Road Map vs. Oslo
Grinstein also highlighted the importance of a phased approach to peace, comparing the gradualism of the Road Map peace plan with the more comprehensive ambitions of the Oslo Accords. He argued that the Road Map, which calls for establishing a Palestinian state in provisional borders before final negotiations, offers a more realistic and achievable path forward.
“[The Road Map is much more realistic than Oslo… it calls for establishing a Palestinian state in provisional borders,]” Grinstein explained. By creating a Palestinian state with limited powers initially, both parties can begin to build trust and establish a foundation for future negotiations.
In contrast, the Oslo Accords aimed to resolve all outstanding issues in one comprehensive agreement, which proved too ambitious given the political realities on both sides. Grinstein believes that incremental progress is the best way to ensure long-term peace and avoid further escalation of the conflict.
Looking Ahead: Israel’s Post-War Future
As the war in Gaza continues, Grinstein offered his perspective on what the post-war future might look like, particularly in terms of governance in Gaza and the West Bank. He predicted that once the dust settles, Israel will likely reapply aspects of the Oslo Accords to Gaza, using them as a framework for governance and security.
“The long-term outcome will be the re-extension of the Oslo Accords to Gaza,” Grinstein predicted, noting that this may be the most viable way to fill the governance vacuum that currently exists in the region.
Despite the challenges, Grinstein remains hopeful that with the right leadership and vision, Israel can navigate its way through these crises and move closer to a sustainable, long-term peace. However, he stressed that this will require difficult choices and a commitment to gradual progress rather than immediate, sweeping solutions.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.