The Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement: Political Strategy, International Mediation, and the Trump Effect
January 15, 2025 | Ambassador Dennis Ross with Patt Morrison: Israel in Crisis Briefing #20
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Ambassador Dennis Ross, a veteran diplomat and expert on Middle East policy, provided deep insights into the newly brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. As a former point man in the U.S.-led Middle East peace process under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, Ross has played a pivotal role in shaping U.S. diplomatic strategies in the region. The conversation explored the ceasefire’s origins, the influence of international mediators, and the role of the incoming Trump administration in finalizing the deal. With the agreement poised to shape the region’s future, Ross analyzed the political and diplomatic forces at play.
A Framework Years in the Making
Despite the appearance of a last-minute deal, Ross noted that the ceasefire agreement had been in development for over a year. Originally an Israeli proposal, the framework was later embraced by the Biden administration and presented to the United Nations, where it received widespread international backing. The ceasefire consists of three phases: a temporary halt in hostilities, a partial Israeli withdrawal from populated areas, and negotiations toward a permanent ceasefire.
A critical component of the deal is the hostage exchange. Over the course of 42 days, Hamas is set to release 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. The specifics of this exchange remain unclear, particularly regarding the number of living hostages, but the fundamental framework had been largely agreed upon for months.
International Mediation: U.S., Qatar, and Egypt’s Role
The ceasefire negotiations were heavily shaped by three key international players: the United States, Qatar, and Egypt. As official guarantors, these nations played critical roles in pressuring both Hamas and Israel toward a resolution. Qatar, a long-time financial supporter of Hamas, and Egypt, which controls the Gaza border, had unique leverage in compelling Hamas to agree to the deal. Meanwhile, the Biden administration worked to refine the agreement, ensuring a structured process for ceasefire implementation.
One of the primary obstacles was the issue of arms smuggling through the Rafah border, a major concern for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Ross explained that Hamas initially resisted concessions related to this corridor, as it had served as a crucial supply line for its military operations. However, with growing diplomatic pressure and Hamas’s increasing isolation, compromises were made to advance the ceasefire framework.
The Trump Effect: Pressure on Netanyahu
Perhaps the most decisive factor in the ceasefire’s finalization was what Ross called “the Trump Effect.” With the Trump administration set to take office, Netanyahu faced immense pressure to approve the agreement. President-elect Trump’s influence on Israel is undeniable, with the Israeli public largely viewing him as a strong supporter of their interests. Netanyahu, aware of the diplomatic and military support he would require from the new administration, found it difficult to reject the deal outright.
Ross suggested that Trump’s emphasis on achieving a resolution before his inauguration left Netanyahu with little room to maneuver. This dynamic not only pushed the Israeli cabinet toward approval but also influenced Hamas, as mediators conveyed to the group that Trump would not tolerate delays or violations of the ceasefire terms.
Netanyahu’s Political Future
While the ceasefire marks a significant diplomatic step, it also presents a political challenge for Netanyahu. His far-right coalition partners, particularly Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, strongly opposed the agreement. Ben-Gvir has threatened to leave the government over the deal, while Smotrich has warned that if the agreement leads to an end to the war, he will also withdraw support.
Netanyahu now faces a difficult balancing act: maintaining his governing coalition while navigating the pressure from both international allies and domestic critics. If the ceasefire holds and leads to broader regional negotiations, Netanyahu may be forced to either realign his coalition or call for new elections.
Regional and Diplomatic Implications
Beyond Israel and Gaza, the ceasefire’s success could open the door for further regional diplomacy. Ross noted that Saudi Arabia remains a key player in future negotiations, particularly regarding potential normalization with Israel. However, Saudi leaders have made it clear that any agreement would require Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza and meaningful steps toward Palestinian self-governance.
Meanwhile, Iran’s weakened regional influence has also shifted the diplomatic landscape. Hamas, once supported by a network of Iranian proxies, now finds itself increasingly isolated. The ceasefire agreement, if fully implemented, could significantly reshape the balance of power in the Middle East, potentially paving the way for broader peace initiatives.
A Pivotal Moment for the Middle East
As Ambassador Ross emphasized, the ceasefire agreement is not just a tactical decision—it is a major diplomatic turning point. With international guarantors in place, shifting political pressures in Israel, and a new U.S. administration poised to take office, the coming weeks will determine whether the ceasefire holds or unravels. If successful, it could set the stage for further diplomatic breakthroughs, including Israeli-Saudi normalization and a renewed push for long-term regional stability. However, with political opposition within Israel and uncertainties surrounding Hamas’s compliance, the situation remains fragile.
One thing is clear: The ceasefire is more than just a pause in fighting—it is a critical test for the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations and the broader Middle East.
About America at a Crossroads
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