The Escalation Between Israel and Hezbollah and U.S. Foreign Policy With Dana Stroul and Michael Singh with Warren Olney
Summary of This Conversation Prepared by Jews United for Democracy & Justice
In a recent episode of America at a Crossroads, Dana Stroul, the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East under President Biden, and Michael Singh, who served on the National Security Staff under George W. Bush, joined Warren Olney to discuss the intensifying conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. As the situation in the Middle East escalates, their conversation delved into Israel’s strategic objectives, Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon, and the United States’ position in the region. With tensions rising, both experts provided insights into how U.S. foreign policy may shape the outcomes of this conflict.
Escalating Conflict Between Israel and Hezbollah
Hezbollah’s Role in the Conflict
Dana Stroul began by explaining how Hezbollah’s involvement in the conflict began on October 8th, a day after Hamas launched its devastating attack on Israel. Since then, Hezbollah has fired rockets and drones into Israel in an attempt to force Israel to divide its military attention between Gaza and the northern front with Lebanon. Stroul noted that Hezbollah’s actions were clearly intended to weaken Israel’s ability to focus solely on dismantling Hamas.
“[Hezbollah’s goal was to pressure Israel into fighting on two fronts,]” Stroul explained. She went on to describe how Israel responded with targeted airstrikes and operations, initially engaging in what she called “calibrated escalation.” However, recent developments indicate that this strategy of measured responses has given way to a much more aggressive stance.
Breaking the Rules of Escalation
“[The informal rules of incremental escalation seem to have collapsed, and we are seeing a new phase of conflict,]” Stroul warned, referring to the recent intensification of Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets.
Israel’s Strategic Shift
Israel’s strategy has shifted significantly in response to the ongoing attacks from Hezbollah. Stroul highlighted how Israel has moved from targeting primarily military assets in southern Lebanon to striking Hezbollah’s weapons stockpiles hidden in civilian areas. This marks a more aggressive approach, where Israel is willing to risk higher collateral damage in its effort to neutralize Hezbollah’s strategic assets.
Assassination of Hezbollah Leadership
In particular, Israel has conducted a series of high-profile assassinations targeting key Hezbollah leadership, severely crippling the group’s command structure. “[Israel has dismantled much of Hezbollah’s leadership, signaling that the group’s options are narrowing,]” Stroul said. This escalation has raised fears that the conflict could spill into a full-scale war, with Israel now extending its military reach deeper into Lebanese territory.
Hezbollah’s Objective and Response
While Israel continues its aggressive campaign, Hezbollah has made it clear that it is unwilling to deescalate until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. This linkage between the two conflicts complicates any diplomatic resolution, as Hezbollah’s leadership has aligned their actions with Hamas’ demands in Gaza.
Geographic Expansion of Hezbollah’s Attacks
Stroul pointed out that Hezbollah’s geographic expansion of attacks into broader areas of Israel signifies a new level of escalation. Meanwhile, Singh cautioned that while Israel’s strategy of targeting Hezbollah leaders may weaken the group temporarily, the Israeli government must clearly define its long-term objectives.
“[If Netanyahu’s goal is to eliminate Hezbollah, that’s much bigger than just restoring deterrence,]” Singh explained. He added that any military victory over Hezbollah would need to be accompanied by a political solution to fill the power vacuum in Lebanon that Hezbollah currently occupies.
U.S. Involvement and Strategy
The United States has taken a critical, though cautious, role in the conflict. Michael Singh discussed the Biden administration’s diplomatic efforts, noting that the U.S. has been working to prevent a broader regional war. However, Singh admitted that the administration’s goals, such as achieving a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, have not yet been realized.
“The U.S. has been reactive, trying to avoid a regional war while supporting Israel’s right to defend itself,” Singh said. He also pointed out that while the U.S. has been supportive of Israel militarily, the administration is wary of becoming too deeply involved, especially with broader regional consequences at stake.
Increasing U.S. Military Presence
Stroul expanded on this, noting that the U.S. has already played a key role in deterring further escalation by increasing its military presence in the region, including naval forces in the Eastern Mediterranean. She warned, however, that as the situation continues to evolve, the Biden administration will need to weigh its options carefully, particularly if Iran, Hezbollah’s chief backer, decides to intervene directly.
Conclusion
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated to a point where a broader regional war looms as a real possibility. With Israel targeting Hezbollah’s leadership and strategic assets, and Hezbollah linking its actions to the war in Gaza, the chances of de-escalation seem slim. Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s diplomatic efforts to prevent the conflict from spiraling further have yet to bear fruit, and the U.S. military’s involvement may deepen if Iran enters the fray.
As the region faces heightened instability, U.S. foreign policy will play a critical role in shaping the outcome. The next steps taken by Israel, Hezbollah, and the United States could determine whether this conflict continues to escalate or finds a diplomatic resolution.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.