Israel’s Political Crossroads: Hostage Negotiations, Internal Divisions, and the Future of a Two-State Solution
February 23, 2025 | Aluf Benn with Patt Morrison: Israel in Crisis Briefing #21
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Haaretz editor-in-chief Aluf Benn provided an in-depth analysis of Israel’s internal political struggles, the challenges of negotiating with Hamas, and the broader implications for long-term peace. As a seasoned journalist who has contributed to The New York Times, Foreign Affairs, and The Guardian, Benn examined the difficult choices facing Israeli leadership as it navigates a war, hostage negotiations, and international pressure. With a divided government, shifting global alliances, and ongoing questions about a Palestinian state, Israel stands at a critical juncture
The Dilemma of War and Hostage Negotiations
The Israeli government is facing a fundamental decision: should it prioritize the continuation of the war against Hamas, or should it focus on securing the return of all remaining hostages? Recent hostage releases have intensified public demand for their return, with a majority of Israelis now favoring a deal that would bring the captives home. However, such an agreement would likely require major concessions, including the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners—moves that could be seen as a victory for Hamas.
On the other hand, Netanyahu has repeatedly promised his right-wing coalition partners that Israel will continue its military operations until Hamas is eradicated. If he backs down, his coalition could collapse, forcing early elections and potentially ending his political career. As Benn pointed out, this moment presents one of the toughest challenges Netanyahu has ever faced, as he risks alienating either the Israeli public or his far-right allies.
The Role of Hamas in Gaza’s Future
One of the biggest questions surrounding the conflict is what happens if Hamas is weakened or removed from power. While Israel has long viewed Hamas as an adversary, its leadership has avoided openly endorsing the Palestinian Authority (PA) as a replacement. For many in Netanyahu’s government, the PA is seen as an even greater threat because of its international legitimacy and potential to push for a recognized Palestinian state.
Benn explained that for years, Netanyahu has played a balancing act—allowing Qatar to fund Hamas while keeping the Palestinian Authority weak. This strategy was intended to prevent the PA from gaining traction as a legitimate governing force, but it may have backfired. Now, Israel faces the challenge of dealing with a strengthened Hamas or taking steps toward allowing the PA to regain control in Gaza—an idea that many right-wing Israeli leaders strongly oppose.
Shifting Alliances and Global Perceptions
Beyond Israel’s internal political struggles, the broader geopolitical landscape is also shifting. In the United States, the Trump administration—despite its strong support for Israel—has an interest in stabilizing the conflict to maintain credibility in the region. Trump’s goal of brokering peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains a key foreign policy objective, but ongoing military operations in Gaza make such agreements more difficult.
In Europe, far-right political parties are gaining traction, with some aligning themselves with Israel’s nationalist government due to shared views on immigration, nationalism, and security. However, this growing alliance comes at a cost, as it further distances Israel from traditional European diplomatic partners who have historically supported a two-state solution. Benn noted that Netanyahu’s government has strategically aligned itself with far-right parties across Europe, despite some of their historical ties to anti-Semitic movements.
The Future of a Two-State Solution
While the idea of a two-state solution remains a topic of discussion, its feasibility seems more uncertain than ever. Benn acknowledged that he has long supported a two-state framework, but in today’s political climate, it is a minority position in Israel. The October 7 attacks by Hamas have further eroded public confidence in the possibility of peaceful coexistence, making any diplomatic solution even more challenging to achieve.
One of the biggest roadblocks remains the issue of the Palestinian right of return. Many Israeli leaders argue that allowing Palestinian refugees to return would fundamentally alter Israel’s demographic and political structure. On the Palestinian side, leaders have been unwilling to abandon this demand, making it difficult to reach a compromise. As a result, negotiations remain at a standstill, with both sides entrenched in their positions.
Netanyahu’s Political Future and the Path Forward
As if the war and hostage crisis were not enough, Netanyahu is also facing mounting political and legal challenges. His corruption trial has been dragging on for years, and while he has managed to delay proceedings, the possibility of a conviction remains. Additionally, his government faces internal fractures over budgetary issues and military conscription laws, particularly regarding exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Israelis.
If Netanyahu’s coalition collapses, Israel could be headed for early elections. Some analysts believe that Netanyahu may use the ongoing war as a means to delay elections and maintain power, while others argue that his government’s handling of the conflict has weakened his public standing. Regardless of the outcome, Benn emphasized that Israel’s political landscape remains deeply unstable, and the coming months will be crucial in determining its future direction.
Conclusion
Israel stands at a crossroads, facing high-stakes decisions about war, diplomacy, and political survival. The question of whether to prioritize military action or diplomacy remains unresolved, and Netanyahu’s leadership is being tested like never before. Meanwhile, shifting global alliances, European political shifts, and internal government struggles add further complexity to an already volatile situation.
As Aluf Benn highlighted, the future of the Israel-Hamas conflict—and the broader question of Israeli-Palestinian relations—remains uncertain. Whether through military escalation, diplomatic negotiations, or political realignment, Israel’s next steps will shape the region for years to come.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.