Can Peace Take Hold in Gaza? Hostages, Diplomacy, and What Comes Next
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from April 2, 2025 Program | Statecraft: Donald Trump and the Prospects for the Middle East and US Foreign Policy in 2025
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, veteran U.S. diplomat Ambassador Dennis Ross unpacked the deeply complex situation unfolding in Gaza. With over 12 years as a key figure in the Middle East peace process under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, Ross brought both historical perspective and current insight to bear on the conflict. The conversation focused on the breakdown of past ceasefire agreements, the shifting roles of Israel, Hamas, and the U.S., and what viable steps might lead to a future of stability, if not yet peace.
Stalled Ceasefire, Unmet Commitments
Ross began by detailing the three-phase ceasefire framework that once offered a glimmer of hope. The plan called for staggered hostage releases, a permanent ceasefire, and ultimately, reconstruction of Gaza. But while phase one moved forward—prompted by diplomatic pressure and political calculation—Israel never initiated phase two. Domestic politics played a major role: Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to collapse Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government if negotiations for a permanent ceasefire were even entertained.
Hamas, for its part, also failed to fully comply. While claiming to adhere to the original agreement, its actual behavior—including withholding living hostages and manipulating the terms of their release—betrayed its strategic delay tactics. As the deal unraveled, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff proposed an alternative: a 50-day ceasefire with hostages released in phases. Israel agreed. Hamas did not.
Pressure, Leverage, and the Role of the U.S.
Ross emphasized the importance of leverage—a central theme of his diplomatic approach. “Good statecraft,” he noted, “requires marrying your objectives to your means.” In this case, the U.S. holds considerable sway over both Israel and Egypt. President Trump, seeking a Nobel Peace Prize and a broader normalization deal with Saudi Arabia, has clear incentives to push for an end to the conflict.
The Saudis, in turn, have set their conditions: no normalization with Israel unless the war in Gaza ends and a credible path to a Palestinian state emerges. Egypt and the UAE, meanwhile, have expressed willingness to support stabilization efforts—but only if governance reforms take place within the Palestinian Authority (PA), and Hamas is sidelined for good.
What Comes After the War?
Ending the fighting is only the beginning. The bigger question is: Who governs Gaza after the war? Ross rejected the idea that Israel can—or should—remain in Gaza long-term. “If there’s no alternative to Hamas, you end up with a vacuum,” he warned. “And either Hamas fills it again, or you get Mogadishu on Israel’s border.”
He pointed to a potential interim solution involving a coalition of Arab states—including the UAE, Egypt, and Morocco—backed by reform within the PA. These nations would provide both security forces and funding, but only if they’re confident Hamas won’t return. That means strict control of smuggling routes, independent humanitarian aid distribution, and a credible reconstruction mechanism that prevents resources from being diverted.
Ceasefire Possibilities and Public Sentiment
Despite the hurdles, Ross sees a renewed ceasefire as still possible—perhaps one lasting 40 or 50 days with partial hostage releases. Gaza’s population is increasingly disillusioned with Hamas; recent protests, though spontaneous and unorganized, reflect growing unrest. Polls show only 7% of Gazans support Hamas remaining in power.
In Israel, public pressure is also mounting—especially from families of hostages who want their loved ones home before further military operations resume. While Netanyahu’s coalition remains politically entrenched, the Israeli public is shifting its focus from military objectives to humanitarian ones.
A Fragile Window for Diplomacy
As Ross made clear, time is of the essence, and diplomacy must move quickly before the conflict deepens beyond repair. With regional players showing interest and the U.S. holding key levers, the groundwork exists for at least a temporary ceasefire—and potentially more.
Whether this fragile moment can become a turning point depends on the political will of leaders in Jerusalem, Gaza, Washington, and across the Arab world. As Ross put it, “We’re not back at square one—but we’re not yet on the path to peace either.”
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.