An Election on Edge: Structural Challenges, Social Issues, and the Future of Democracy with Lynn Vavreck, Norm Ornstein and Patt Morrison
November 4, 2024 | Lynn Vavreck and Norm Ornstein with Patt Morrison | Election 2024: Analysis of Two Experts on Election Eve – Summary Prepared by JUDJ Team
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, political experts Lynn Vavreck and Norm Ornstein dissected the social and structural forces shaping what may be one of the most consequential elections in modern U.S. history. Vavreck, a UCLA political scientist and expert on American elections, and Ornstein, a senior fellow emeritus at the American Enterprise Institute and longtime Congress analyst, shared insights on polarization, election integrity, disinformation, and the impact of social issues like abortion. Their discussion offered a comprehensive look at the unique hurdles facing American democracy today—and what they mean for the future.
The Reliability of Polls and Election Predictions
Polls have long been a key component of election predictions, but in this deeply divided political climate, their reliability is increasingly questioned. Vavreck remains confident in the value of polling data, noting that it provides essential insights into voter behavior and trends. However, Ornstein expressed concerns, pointing to polling challenges such as historically low response rates, sometimes as low as 3%. He argues that such low participation raises questions about whether polls genuinely capture a representative snapshot of American voters. While both experts recognize the importance of polls in gauging public sentiment, they advise that polling data should be interpreted cautiously and seen as one of several tools for understanding electoral outcomes.
Abortion, the Gender Gap, and the Influence of Social Issues
One of the most stark divisions in this election is the gender gap, which has widened in response to issues like reproductive rights. Vavreck and Ornstein noted that recent Supreme Court rulings on abortion have mobilized female voters, particularly among younger women and those without college degrees. Vavreck anticipates that this divide will be evident in exit polling, with women overwhelmingly citing abortion rights as a top priority. Ornstein added that Donald Trump’s polarizing rhetoric on women’s rights may have intensified this shift, pushing female voters to candidates who support reproductive freedom and gender equality. The prominence of gender-based issues, especially reproductive rights, has turned them into decisive factors in shaping voter behavior this election cycle, with both experts suggesting these issues may be even more influential than traditional economic concerns.
The Role of Media, Disinformation, and Public Perception
Disinformation has become a growing threat in American elections, particularly in an era where misinformation campaigns are sophisticated and widespread. Vavreck emphasized that while disinformation rarely persuades voters to change their political loyalties, it can fuel existing divisions, often inciting strong emotional responses. Ornstein agreed, noting that disinformation campaigns are primarily intended to foster distrust in democratic institutions and create a sense of instability. Both experts advised that Americans remain vigilant about the information they consume, especially on social media, where disinformation spreads quickly. This vigilance, they argue, is essential to combat the manipulative effects of disinformation campaigns and to ensure that voters make informed decisions based on credible sources.
Voting Rights, Access, and Barriers to Participation
A major structural issue highlighted by Vavreck and Ornstein is the lack of uniform voting standards across states. With each state setting its own voting rules, barriers to participation vary widely, from restrictions on mail-in ballots to the number of available polling locations. Ornstein expressed particular concern about restrictions that affect specific voter groups, such as reduced access to ballot drop boxes and polling locations in counties with large minority populations. These restrictions, he argued, are often designed to suppress the vote, particularly among marginalized groups. While Vavreck noted that states have the constitutional authority to set their own voting rules, she emphasized that these disparities contribute to an inequitable voting process. The experts agreed that a more uniform approach to voting access would help ensure fairer representation, especially in closely contested elections.
A Critical Moment for Democracy
Vavreck and Ornstein’s discussion reveals the complex and often conflicting forces influencing this election. From the reliability of polling data and the power of social issues like reproductive rights to the impact of disinformation and restrictive voting practices, this election is a true test of America’s democratic structures. Both experts acknowledge the challenges, but they also see potential for resilience. They stress that preserving democracy requires an engaged and vigilant citizenry who critically examine their sources of information, prioritize participation, and hold institutions accountable. As Americans cast their ballots, Vavreck and Ornstein’s insights serve as a reminder that the health of democracy depends not only on its laws and structures but on the commitment of its people.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.