2024 Election Dynamics With Peter Baker, Susan Glasser, and Madeleine Brand
Summary of This Conversation Prepared by Jews United for Democracy & Justice
In a recent episode of America at a Crossroads, journalists Peter Baker and Susan Glasser joined Madeleine Brand to discuss the unfolding political landscape as the 2024 presidential election approaches. They explored the campaign strategies of President Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and former President Donald Trump, while delving into the broader context of a deeply polarized electorate. As election day draws near, the dynamics of a divided country, turnout challenges, and the strategic positioning of the candidates are all coming to the fore.
Biden’s Quiet Campaign Strategy
Peter Baker began by commenting on President Biden’s relatively low-profile presence on the campaign trail. Biden has not been actively campaigning in the way one might expect, instead choosing to focus on his governing duties, particularly in regard to foreign policy issues such as the war in Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East.
“[It’s kind of quiet at the White House these days,]” Baker remarked, noting that while Biden has made some appearances and speeches, he has largely left the heavy lifting of campaigning to his vice president. Baker suggested that Biden’s quieter approach may also reflect a broader strategy—one where Biden remains in the background, allowing Harris to take a more prominent role as the face of the campaign. This might also be tied to Biden’s age and the perception that he represents continuity rather than change.
Biden’s decision not to lead the charge himself raises questions about his energy level and the campaign’s confidence in Harris to galvanize voters. While Biden’s team insists his governing record speaks for itself, his absence from the campaign trail is notable. As Baker put it, “[You hear the crickets.]”
Harris’ Role as the Change Agent
Susan Glasser explained that Harris’ role in the campaign is not just to support Biden’s record but to present herself as the candidate of change—a necessary move for her to appeal to voters who are seeking something new. Glasser noted that Harris is walking a fine line, trying to both distance herself from Biden without alienating his supporters.
“[She’s trying to say that she is the change agent,]” Glasser noted, emphasizing that Harris doesn’t want to be seen as a continuation of Biden, especially when some voters are dissatisfied with the current administration’s handling of issues like inflation and immigration. By presenting herself as a fresh face who can bring a new perspective, Harris aims to capture the energy of voters seeking change, particularly among younger and more progressive voters.
However, Glasser observed that this strategy comes with its own set of risks. Harris must maintain the support of traditional Democrats and Biden loyalists while also pulling in undecided voters who may have concerns about her ability to lead. This balancing act will be crucial as the election progresses, especially in key swing states where every vote matters.
Trump’s Debate Performance and Polling
The conversation turned to the resilience of Trump’s support, even after a widely criticized debate performance. Despite Harris winning the debate decisively in the eyes of pundits and voters alike, the polls remain neck-and-neck. Glasser pointed out that Trump’s base remains as solid as ever, largely immune to any missteps he might make on the debate stage.
“[Even after a disastrous debate, the polls remain tight,]” Glasser observed, reflecting on the fact that Trump’s core support has not wavered much since his first run for office in 2016. She explained that Trump has maintained a strategy of appealing to his base, rather than trying to win over undecided voters. His inflammatory rhetoric, while shocking to many, continues to resonate with a significant portion of the electorate.
Peter Baker echoed this sentiment, noting that Trump’s strategy is to “[overwhelm with his voters]” rather than appeal to those in the middle. Unlike traditional candidates, Trump has made little effort to expand his support beyond his core base. Instead, he relies on the loyalty of his existing supporters to carry him through, which has kept the race tightly contested.
Glasser and Baker both noted that the polarized nature of the electorate makes it difficult for any candidate to break out from the roughly 50-50 divide that has defined U.S. politics for the past several elections. Even a poor debate performance does little to change the overall landscape, as most voters have already made up their minds. As Glasser put it, “[We’re in a doom loop.]”
The Importance of Turnout
Both Baker and Glasser emphasized that turnout will be the key factor in determining the outcome of the 2024 election. With the country so evenly divided, mobilizing voters will be more important than ever.
“[It all comes down to turnout,]” Baker explained, stressing that while polling data is important, the real challenge will be getting voters to the polls, particularly in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Early voting has already begun in many states, meaning that campaigns are shifting their focus to voter engagement efforts, particularly targeting low-propensity voters.
Glasser added that this election is less about persuading undecided voters and more about mobilization. “[We’re in the era of mobilization, not persuasion,]” she said, noting that voter turnout in the U.S. has been relatively low compared to other democracies. In a closely contested election like this, small shifts in turnout can have a significant impact on the outcome. Both campaigns are investing heavily in ground operations and digital efforts aimed at getting their base to vote.
Another dynamic at play is the importance of early voting and mail-in ballots, which have fundamentally changed the timeline of election day. “[The election is already happening,]” Baker said, emphasizing that with so many votes cast before election day, campaigns are now engaged in a marathon, not a sprint.
Conclusion
As the 2024 election approaches, the contrasting strategies of Biden, Harris, and Trump reflect the deep political divide in the United States. Biden’s quiet approach, Harris’ positioning as a change agent, and Trump’s unwavering base all highlight the complexities of a polarized electorate. With voter turnout likely to be the decisive factor, both campaigns are pouring resources into mobilization efforts. In a race where the margins are slim, every vote will count, and the final weeks of the campaign will prove crucial.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.