Navigating the Divide: Perspectives on Polarization, Polls, and Election Integrity with Lynn Vavreck, Norm Ornstein and Patt Morrison
November 4, 2024 | Lynn Vavreck and Norm Ornstein with Patt Morrison | Election 2024: Analysis of Two Experts on Election Eve – Summary Prepared by JUDJ Team
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, political experts Lynn Vavreck and Norm Ornstein unpacked the many complex factors shaping one of the most pivotal elections in recent U.S. history. Vavreck, a UCLA political scientist with extensive expertise in American politics and public policy, and Ornstein, a senior fellow emeritus at the American Enterprise Institute with over four decades of experience studying the U.S. Congress, shared insights into polling reliability, gender divides, disinformation risks, and institutional integrity amid today’s polarized climate. Their conversation highlighted both the challenges and resilience of American democracy, offering a nuanced look at what’s at stake and what might lie ahead.
Trust in Polls and Election Predictions
In today’s election climate, the reliability of polls was a focal point in Vavreck and Ornstein’s discussion. Vavreck views polls as essential tools that provide insights into public sentiment and voter behavior, emphasizing that polling data can often give a reasonably accurate glimpse into the likely outcome of the election. However, Ornstein remains skeptical, citing concerns about the accuracy of polling due to today’s significantly low response rates, sometimes as low as 3%. He pointed out that such low participation rates can make it difficult for pollsters to gather a truly representative sample, potentially skewing results and creating a misleading public perception. Despite their contrasting views, both experts agreed on the importance of interpreting polling data with caution, recognizing that while polls can be informative, they are not infallible predictors.
The Growing Gender Gap and Voting Behavior
A major divide in this election, both experts noted, is the unprecedented gender gap among voters. Recent Supreme Court rulings affecting reproductive rights have mobilized many female voters, particularly among those without college degrees and younger women who see these issues as crucial to their futures. Vavreck anticipates that this gender divide will become starkly apparent in exit polls, with abortion rights emerging as a leading issue for women. Ornstein added that Trump’s divisive rhetoric on gender and women’s rights is likely intensifying this shift, pushing many women toward candidates advocating for reproductive freedoms and gender equity. This trend highlights the increasing role of gender-based issues in shaping voter behavior and underscores the importance of recognizing and addressing these key issues.
Disinformation and Public Trust
The role of disinformation and its impact on public perception is a significant concern in this election, especially in a landscape where misinformation is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Vavreck explained that while disinformation rarely persuades voters to change their loyalties entirely, it can heighten existing divisions and elicit strong emotional responses. This, she argues, makes it a powerful tool for creating unrest, even if it doesn’t directly change votes. Ornstein agreed, emphasizing that disinformation campaigns aim to deepen public distrust and foster division rather than win over the opposing side. Both experts advised Americans to be vigilant about the information they consume, encouraging the public to verify news sources and remain aware of disinformation campaigns that seek to manipulate public sentiment.
Election Integrity and Institutional Strength
On the topic of election integrity and the strength of democratic institutions, Vavreck expressed cautious optimism. She believes that the foundational institutions of American democracy, including its judicial and electoral systems, are equipped to withstand potential challenges. However, Ornstein voiced concerns about recent Supreme Court rulings, particularly those related to the “independent state legislature” theory. This theory posits that state legislatures could hold nearly unchecked authority over elections, even bypassing state courts, and potentially influencing outcomes at a critical level. Ornstein warned that if this theory gains traction, it could compromise fair election practices and undermine public trust in democratic processes. Both experts emphasized that public vigilance and engagement are essential in holding institutions accountable and ensuring the integrity of elections.
A Critical Moment for Democracy
Vavreck and Ornstein’s insights offer a thoughtful yet sobering perspective on American democracy. The challenges are real, from heightened polarization and gender divides to the potential impact of disinformation and judicial overreach. However, both experts believe that the strength of American institutions, along with the resilience and engagement of its citizens, can withstand the pressures of this historic election. They stressed that, in this highly polarized political environment, active and informed participation remains essential to protect and strengthen democracy. As Americans head to the polls, their words serve as a reminder that democracy is not just a system but a shared responsibility—one that demands vigilance, critical thinking, and unwavering commitment from every citizen.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.