The Long Road to a Two-State Solution and the Future of U.S.-Israel Relations
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Middle East expert Aaron David Miller and moderator Larry Mantle explored the future of peace between Israelis and Palestinians. With decades of experience in diplomacy and conflict resolution, Miller shared his insights into the challenges of achieving a two-state solution, the role of leadership, and the evolving dynamics of U.S. policy toward Israel. As the war in Gaza continues, these issues are increasingly urgent for both the region and the international community.
The Two-State Solution: A Distant Dream?
The idea of a two-state solution has long been a cornerstone of peace efforts in the Middle East, both in the U.S. and internationally. However, Miller expressed deep skepticism about the likelihood of this solution becoming a reality, especially in the aftermath of the October 7th attacks. He described the growing disillusionment among Israelis, particularly after the horrors of that day, which have deepened their mistrust of Palestinians.
“The only useful deployment of the phrase ‘River to the Sea’ is to describe the problem that exists between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River,” Miller explained. He underscored the demographic, territorial, and psychological complexities that make the Israeli-Palestinian conflict one of the most intractable in the world.
While Miller acknowledged that separation through negotiation remains the ideal solution, he also noted that it is currently tethered to “a galaxy far, far away” from the realities on the ground.
Leadership as the Key to Change
At the heart of Miller’s analysis was the role of leadership—or rather, the lack of it. He argued that true progress cannot be made without bold leaders on both sides who are willing to take significant risks. Miller pointed to historical figures like Nelson Mandela, Yitzhak Rabin, and Anwar Sadat, who were able to transcend their political circumstances for the greater good of their people.
“You need leaders with courage and commitment, and frankly, I don’t see them now,” Miller said. He described a Palestinian leadership that is fractured and unable to unite its people, while Israel remains led by politicians more focused on short-term political survival than on long-term peace.
He stressed that even with the involvement of external powers such as the United States and Saudi Arabia, peace will remain elusive without Israeli and Palestinian leaders who are “masters of their politics, not prisoners of their ideologies.”
The Role of External Actors: U.S. and Arab States
Miller also emphasized the critical role that external actors, particularly the United States, play in facilitating peace. He acknowledged that while countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar bring financial resources and diplomatic pressure to the table, the ultimate success of any peace agreement rests on the shoulders of Israeli and Palestinian leaders.
“At the heart of the matter here is an Israeli and Palestinian leader prepared to risk not only their political fortunes but their lives,” Miller remarked.
The international community, he noted, has historically struggled to impose its will on the region. This is why, according to Miller, sustained efforts by outside actors, even with all their resources, will not be sufficient without the necessary leadership from within.
The Biden Administration’s Approach to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
One of the key topics of the conversation was the Biden administration’s response to the ongoing conflict. Miller explained that President Biden’s reluctance to exert significant pressure on Israel stems not just from domestic politics but also from his deeply ingrained emotional connection to the country.
“[Biden’s emotional identification with the people of Israel is deeply embedded in his political DNA]” Miller explained, noting that this connection has influenced the administration’s policies, even in moments where more forceful intervention might have been possible.
While Biden has expressed support for Israel throughout his career, he has also faced growing criticism from progressives in the United States who argue that the administration has given Netanyahu too much leeway in Gaza.
What the Future Holds for U.S. Policy Toward Israel
Looking ahead, Miller speculated on what might change in U.S.-Israel relations if Vice President Kamala Harris were to ascend to the presidency. Harris, who is a generation younger than Biden, does not have the same long-standing emotional attachment to Israel that has defined Biden’s approach.
“She’s not going to say what Joe Biden said… But it will be a change in tone and empathy,” Miller suggested, noting that Harris has shown a greater willingness to convey empathy for both Israelis and Palestinians.
However, Miller was quick to point out that even with a change in tone, the fundamental U.S. policy toward Israel is unlikely to shift dramatically. “Governing is about choosing,” he said, emphasizing that Harris or any future president will have to prioritize competing global challenges such as China, Ukraine, and Iran.
The Role of Settlers and the West Bank
Miller also touched on the increasingly difficult situation in the West Bank, where Israeli settlement expansion continues to threaten the possibility of peace. According to Miller, the current Israeli government has not only allowed settlement growth but actively supported policies that push Palestinians out of key areas.
“They are expanding the space for settlers to operate… and contracting the space for Palestinians,” Miller explained, describing how these actions are effectively creating a situation of de facto annexation.
This aggressive settlement policy complicates any future negotiations, as it further entrenches divisions and diminishes the possibility of a viable two-state solution.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.